Culled from The Guardian
The 2027 contest for the gubernatorial seat in Oyo State is fast gaining momentum. The agitation is not helped by the interests of the incumbent holder, his insistence on an age limit for potential aspirants, advocacy of equity, zoning, and the expected powerplay with the opposition party, ROTIMI AGBOLUAJE reports.
Ahead of the 2027 governorship race in Oyo State, political dynamics are shifting dramatically. For the first time since Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999, the long-standing dominance of Ibadan indigenes over the governorship seat is facing strong and widespread resistance.
From Ibarapa to Oke-Ogun, Ogbomoso to Oyo, there is a growing call for power rotation, a demand anchored on the principles of equity, justice, and fair representation.
The agitation is no longer a muted appeal by fringe actors; it has become a mainstream political movement with deep grassroots support and visible elite endorsement, including from within Ibadan itself.
Oyo State, with its 33 local government areas, is divided into five geopolitical zones: Ibadan Zone with 11 local governments, Oke-Ogun Zone with 10 councils, Ogbomoso Zone with five local governments, Oyo Zone with four, and Ibarapa Zone with three local governments.
Since 1999, the governorship seat has remained firmly in the grip of Ibadan. From Lam Adesina (1999–2003), Senator Rashidi Ladoja (2003–2007), Abiola Ajimobi (2011–2019), to the current governor, Seyi Makinde (2019–present), all are from Ibadan.
The only exception was when the late Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala ruled from Ogbomoso. He assumed office in 2006 after Ladoja’s impeachment and later won a full term in 2007.
While other zones have occasionally produced deputy governors, speakers, or ministers, they have never truly produced the governor in the state—a pattern many now say must change in 2027.
Makinde: A balance of equity, loyalty and legacy
Governor Seyi Makinde remains the most consequential power broker within the Oyo PDP and will likely determine who gets the ticket. Yet, his successor dilemma is complicated.
The governor will face three different pressures: the growing calls for power shift to Oke-Ogun or Ibarapa; pressure from loyalists in Ibadan, who feel entitled to continue his legacy; and the need to avoid implosion within the ranks of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), especially with rising opposition from aggrieved stakeholders sidelined in the 2023 re-election structure.
So far, Makinde has kept his cards close to his chest, quietly empowering several aides and technocrats across the zones. The governor has also expressed his interest in a candidate who is not above 50 years old to succeed him in office.
Among the names that have been pencilled as possible favourites are Segun Ogunwuyi, Chief of Staff to the governor (from Ogbomoso); the incumbent Deputy Governor, Bayo Lawal (Oke-Ogun); and Speaker of the House of Assembly, Adebo Ogundoyin (Ibarapa).
Insiders said Makinde was leaning toward a non-Ibadan technocrat or a loyal ally from Oke-Ogun or Oyo, who will preserve his policies and offer a generational transition. But opposition within the party may complicate a smooth succession, especially if the governor insists on the age factor as a determinant for endorsing his successor in 2027.
Already, the governor’s position is creating fractures in Oyo PDP, and analysts said the development might cost the party the state if not properly handled.
There is the question of the Makinde-led coalition’s durability. Many of Makinde’s core allies from 2019, including former majority leaders and financiers, feel excluded or diminished, especially by the age factor. Insiders in the party said the situation was a bit complex, and the next move of those already aggrieved was yet unknown. A party stalwart said, “Their next move—to stay or defect—could shape PDP’s fate in 2027.”
How Makinde—who is perceived as the major power broker in the party—and some key stakeholders handle the situation will determine whether PDP will retain the state in the next two years. Despite this, the ruling party is still lackadaisical in its belief that the opposition party in Oyo is practically dead, including the APC.
APC… still in disarray
Despite controlling the presidency and several key federal appointments, the major opposition APC remains mired in endless factionalism and personality clashes. The party’s defeat in both the 2019 and 2023 governorship elections has yet to yield genuine soul-searching.
Key fault lines persist: Unity Forum vs SENACO loyalists; 2023 candidate Teslim Folarin’s dominance vs grassroots resistance; return of estranged members like Bayo Shittu and Sunday Dare, who are quietly building rival blocs.
However, APC’s inability to hold regular stakeholder meetings or reconcile post-election grievances has left the party without a clear roadmap or frontrunner.
As of today, Oyo APC has no clear leader. In recent times, efforts were made by the former Governor of Osun State, Chief Bisi Akande, and others to summon a meeting of Oyo APC stakeholders, but how far the attempt can go to calm all the frayed nerves is yet to be known.
One of the grouses among members of the party outside the Ibadan zone is that the incumbent Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, cannot be parading himself as the endorsed candidate from the presidency. This has made the likes of former Minister of Communication, Adebayo Shittu, and others warn against imposing any aspirants from Ibadan on the party for 2027.
Until a credible consensus candidate emerges and factional leaders agree to collapse structures, Oyo APC may head into 2027 with too many aspirants and too little cohesion.
A chieftain of PDP, Rasheed Olopoeyan, said that despite widespread disillusionment with both PDP and APC, Oyo’s political terrain offers no viable third force.
He said the Labour Party (LP), which surged nationally during the 2023 presidential election, remains organisationally weak in Oyo and lacks structure beyond urban student activism.
Attempts to build a viable coalition of young professionals, civil society actors, and disenchanted voters under platforms like the Young Progressives Party (YPP), the Social Democratic Party (SDP), or PRP have fizzled out due to a lack of funding, poor mobilisation, and elite capture.
According to INEC’s post-election voter survey, over 42 per cent of young voters in Oyo State did not return to vote in the March 2023 governorship poll after participating in the February presidential election—a clear sign of disengagement from local politics.
Pundits are looking forward to a credible third force emerging in Oyo by late 2026. Otherwise, the 2027 contest will remain a two-party race, dominated by the PDP and APC power blocs.
But dismissing the clamour for zoning at the expense of good governance, the Chairman of the Oyo Labour Party, Atayese Sodiq, said his party would present credible candidates that would win in 2027. He said: “What is happening at the national level will affect Oyo State. The issues in the major parties will cascade to the state level. The monster party members are there for their selfish interests. Only the Labour Party is people-oriented. We represent workers and the masses. The 2027 contest is the people against the monster parties. We are the credible alternative. We will present credible candidates that will win elections in 2027.”
Speaking on the chances of fringe political parties, a public affairs analyst and Political Science lecturer at the University of Ibadan (UI), Dr. Stephen Lafenwa, said: “Most of the parties don’t have any chance, looking at past experiences. That shows we still have two major parties.
Four basic factors are responsible for the chances of a political party. They are finance, party structure, grassroots mobilisation, and the personalities of their candidates in terms of popularity. Fringe parties lack these. Some of them will end up stepping down for big parties.”
However, the Head of the Department of Political Science, UI, Prof. Adewale Yagboyaju, said: “The beauty of election in a democratic setting is that every participant is believed to have the chance and the mindset to win. Every political party can win or lose. In Oyo State, the fringe parties have their chance. There can be protest votes among the electorate. They are there to win, and they should do everything to secure their victory.”
A political scholar, Dr Oluwagbemiro Adedina, said: “Honestly, there is no hope. Nationally, locally, or globally, there will always be dominant parties, mostly two major parties. There will be a ruling party or opposition that wants to unseat it. Smaller parties want alignment. Unless there is a coalition of political parties, that can change the dynamics.”
Associate Professor of Political Science, UI, Dr Idowu Johnson, said: “The issue of zoning may not work. For unity and equity, we can have negotiation and dialogue. There is no chance for smaller parties because of a lack of financial muscle. There is no way smaller parties can have a chance.”
A political scientist, Prof. Jide Akanji, said: “It is difficult as far as this statement is concerned. The PDP and APC are leading. Before any party can dislodge the current party, it must have its house in order. They must be united. I don’t see any major upset.”
As Oyo State approaches a political crossroads, the 2027 governorship contest is no longer a simple intra-Ibadan rivalry. It is a multi-zonal political awakening that could redefine the future of leadership in the state. Whether the call for rotation will be answered remains to be seen. But what is clear is that the race is wide open, and the rules of engagement have changed.
