When the memes that savagely mocked Power Minister Adebayo Adelabu hit the internet, he must have been doubly unnerved because it is election year—the season politicians put up their best behaviour, so they do not trigger an aggrieved electorate. To be unmotivated to vote for you is bad enough; to be motivated to vote against you is calamitous. For someone whose gubernatorial ambition already hangs in the balance, Adelabu cannot afford to imperil the certainty of the lush position he already holds by being arrogant. Unlike other agencies that lack felt meaning for most people, power generation is not abstract. These are not the ministries of “foreign affairs” or “aviation” that have no immediate relevance to many. Failure in the power sector is keenly felt in many homes, businesses, and other vital public spaces across the country.
That is why, in his recent media conference, Adelabu had to appear contrite, all shrivelled up like vegetables in an evening market. Unlike his 2024 press conference, where he arrogantly spewed some “bitter truth” about how Nigerians are their own problems because they lack “consumption management” and their increased electricity tariffs are therefore justified, he dared not speak in utter nonsense this time. He even apologised. As I recall, that was the second time a power minister apologised to Nigerians for their failures. The first was Bola Ige. After almost three decades of countless reforms, and with more than 50 million people added to the national population, we still eat apologies. Adelabu went further to promise that in a matter of weeks, power will improve. Unfortunately, “improve” is unquantifiable (he also made the same promise in 2023). Anyway, by now, we can take it for granted that he cannot achieve anything significant before 2027 and score him his “F” already.
If I had been at the press conference, I would have asked him about the target he was given by the President when he was appointed. Bola Tinubu promised to deliver 15,000MW of electricity by 2027, when his first term would have concluded. In fact, he even instructed Nigerians not to vote for him again if he fails on that promise. Well, it is less than a year until the end of his first term, and we have clearly not stabilised even 5,000MW. By the time you finish reading this, the national grid might have collapsed again. Meanwhile, in 2024, Adelabu promised a target of 6,000MW by year’s end. In 2025, he made the same promise, although he also said at another forum that he was targeting 8,000MW by 2027. It is 2026, and his idea of the improvements Nigeria will see in a matter of weeks is still to achieve the same 6,000MW! We have come a long way from the 15,000MW Tinubu promised, but we are also not in any way closer to even the meagre 6,000MW they promised we would achieve by the end of 2024, 2025, and 2026. When Adelabu attends Federal Executive Cabinet meetings or meets the President to brief him on his sector, how do they reconcile these wild figures that are stomping all over the place? From ageing equipment to vandalism to gas supply shortages to transmission issues, Adelabu is never short of factors to assign blame for his failures whenever he is confronted. At the last press conference, he even added the Middle East war as if our problems did not precede the war.
Adelabu is not the first power minister who will “make mouth” about what they will achieve in that sector. Every government since 1999 has promised modest to major gains in power generation, but has been defeated by reality. The late Bola Ige once boasted that he would turn “stones into bread” when he was appointed as the power minister. Olusegun Obasanjo not only promised to achieve 10,000MW of electricity by December 2007, but also said he was putting in place the means to achieve 100,000MW by 2025. What did the multi-billion-dollar investments in the power sector all come to after his administration spent about $15bn? Umaru Yar’Adua also promised major improvements, though by 2009, he revised his target to a more realistic 6,000MW. Some 17 years later, that same 6,000MW is still a target that we are not yet certain will even be achieved! Like Obasanjo, Goodluck Jonathan would later spend billions of dollars on the power sector, but still nothing. In 2011, then power minister, Lanre Babalola, also promised 10,000MW by year’s end. Today, nobody promises even 7,500MW. We merely walked many miles only to remain at the same spot.
Power generation has been the graveyard of many brilliant technocrats who eventually found that the intensity of their will did not match the scale of the challenge that needed to be surmounted. When Raji Fashola still enjoyed the “starboy” status in the South-West, he once declared, “We do not have power, not because power is difficult to generate…we are in darkness because the economy is being run by gbáàtúẹ̀yọ̀s – incompetent people.” When he was given the reins as power minister to prove his mettle, did he also not end up joining the league of gbáàtúẹ̀yọ̀s? If charismatic Fashola could fail so woefully, who honestly thinks a colourless guy like Adelabu will make much difference? Also, we have heard every excuse, and nothing Adelabu blames for his failure is new. Former power minister, Prof. Chinedu Nebo, and Minister of State for Power, Haija Zainab Kuchi, respectively held responsible “witches and demons” and “evil spirits” responsible for their inability to achieve anything in that ministry.
Part of the problem is that none of the governments that have been in power has had an overarching vision of national development to which power generation is integral. Without an economic philosophy guiding the development agenda, every sector runs its own race, aiming for modest goals. The idea of progress in the power sector has mostly consisted of merely moving from Point A to B, and not because they are working towards, say, the industrialisation of the country. The piecemeal approach helps politicians because, when they fail to achieve the target megawatts, they treat it as one of their shortcomings rather than a general failure of their administration.
Truthfully, Nigeria’s problems are very complex, which is why we need a whole new set of thinking in governance. What we have are basic thinkers who see national development in terms of a 30km road built here and a bridge built over there. The Nigerians who can sit diligently down to understand the problem and work toward solutions are bypassed. Many in Nigeria are appointed to power, not because they have demonstrated that they have thought about the problem, but because they have the clout to help win the next elections. When they get into office, that is exactly what they pursue. They are forever jumping from one strategy meeting to another, not in pursuit of national progress, but simply to scheme towards the next election. Without taking the time to understand the issues or how they will be resolved before they get to power, they run on gut instinct. They loudly boast about the megawatts they will achieve and quietly move the goalposts later.
Worst for now is that Tinubu does not seem to me like someone who is motivated by anything other than his ambition. Aso Rock has moved from the national grid to generating solar power. They have fully disconnected from the country, which is why Tinubu has no qualms keeping underperforming ministers like Adelabu around. Unless the solution is a gigantic contract that can be awarded to the Chagourys, Tinubu cannot be bothered. He knows that, over time, most Nigerians will adopt solar, and the power ministry will either become redundant or be merged.
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