2027: How fresh alignments, horse-trading shaping race for Oyo governorship poll by Rotimi Agboluaje

Alignments ahead of the 2027 elections are already shifting political calculations in Oyo State, with emerging alliances, quiet negotiations, internal party tensions and strategic defections redefining the contest for the Agodi Government House.

Unlike previous electoral cycles largely dominated by the two major political parties, the unfolding political climate in the state reflects an unpredictable landscape. Across the major parties and even among smaller political platforms, there are visible cracks, succession intrigues, competing ambitions and growing calculations over who succeeds Governor Seyi Makinde in 2027.

Ahead of 2027, the scramble for the soul of the Pacesetter state is between competing tendencies, coalitions and personalities seeking relevance in a dynamic political environment. It is no longer between parties.

At the centre of the unfolding calculations is Governor Makinde himself, whose growing national political profile and  alignment with the coalition platform of the Allied Peoples’  Movement (APM) have significantly altered the traditional balance within the state’s political architecture.

For many, Makinde’s evolving political direction has introduced a fresh layer of uncertainty into Oyo politics, especially regarding the future of the Peoples’  Democratic Party (PDP) structure that brought him to power in 2019 and secured his re-election in 2023.

Head of the Department of Political Science at the University of Ibadan, Professor Dhikru Adewale Yagboyaju, described the current political atmosphere as typical of pre-election politics in the state, characterised by intrigues, horse-trading and strategic realignments.

According to him, political contests naturally generate conflicts and competing interests, particularly during candidate selection processes.

“The political climate in Oyo State is as normal as it used to be ahead of general elections. Intrigues, horse-trading and realignments are all involved and this is normal,” he said.

Yagboyaju, however, warned that the major challenge for political parties would be managing post-primary grievances, especially amid debates over consensus candidacies and direct primaries.

“Whichever option is adopted, direct primary or consensus, there is the high probability that there would be postscripts after the exercises. Therefore, internal conflict management mechanisms of the various political parties must be prepared for reconciliation so as not to go into the general elections with divided houses,” he stated.

His position reflects growing concerns within major parties where aspirants and their supporters are already quietly mobilising ahead of the primaries.

Within the APC, the succession debate has become highly contentious following the emergence of multiple governorship aspirants and disagreements over alleged attempts to impose a  candidate notwithstanding that the party has opted for direct primaries.

Although party leaders have repeatedly spoken about unity, it was gathered that underground rivalries persist among competing blocs loyal to different political heavyweights within the party.

A Political Science lecturer at the University of Ilorin , Professor Gbade Ojo, noted that Oyo politics remains unique because no single political godfather completely controls the state’s electoral direction.

“The political climate in Oyo State currently is boisterous. It demonstrates that the state’s politics is indeed unique. The state is divided into zones with each having unique political attributes. Thus, there is no overriding godfather”,  Ojo, a former Chief of Staff to the late Governor Abiola Ajimobi,  said.

Yet, according to him, Makinde has gradually emerged as the dominant political figure in the state.

“For now, Governor Seyi Makinde has emerged as the overall political figure in the state. If he can use his influence to deliver the state to APM, opposition elements must have been politically castrated,” Ojo added.

That possibility is already generating anxiety among opposition figures who fear Makinde may deploy incumbency influence, political structures and grassroots networks beyond the PDP framework.

Several political actors who once aligned with the PDP are already exploring alternative platforms, including Accord, Social Democratic Party [SDP] and APM, amid uncertainty surrounding future party alignments.

The quiet movement of politicians across party lines has further reinforced perceptions that the 2027 contest may become one of the most fragmented governorship races in Oyo’s recent political history.

A major feature of the unfolding political scenario is the growing relevance of smaller parties, particularly Accord.

Regarded as a fringe platform, Accord is attracting politicians, technocrats and younger political actors such as  Solomon Emiola, Ishola Adeyemi, Oriyomi Hamzat, and others  seeking alternatives outside the dominant APC-PDP rivalry.

The entrance of notable figures into the party has strengthened speculation that Accord may become a major third force capable of influencing the outcome of the governorship election.

Former Lagos Commissioner of Police and one-time Special Adviser on Security Matters to Governor Makinde, Fatai Owoseni, recently aligned with Accord shortly after resigning from the Makinde administration.

An Ibadan-based broadcaster, Oriyomi Hamzat has also emerged as one of the notable figures linked with the party’s governorship calculations.

The development has heightened discussions around protest voting, grassroots populism and the possibility of voter fatigue with traditional political establishments.

Veteran broadcaster and former Nigerian Ambassador to the Philippines , Dr. Yemi Farounbi, argued that the political space has become increasingly muddled due to judicial interventions, electoral disputes and shifting party loyalties.

“In the past, it was easier to predict the political landscape consisting of two major political parties and several smaller ones. But with the narrowing of the political space through judicial interventions, INEC interventions and alleged subterranean presidential interventions, the landscape is muddled,” he said.

Farounbi noted that the PDP’s internal uncertainties and Makinde’s coalition politics have significantly weakened the party’s traditional dominance.

“APM is the haven for GSM and his faction of PDP. Given his generally acclaimed performance, APM cannot be written off. It can give APC a really good fight,” he observed.

He also described Accord as an “up-swelling of the common people,” although he cautioned that electoral success would depend on organisational capacity and grassroots mobilisation.

For many,  the real battle in Oyo may eventually revolve around structure, reconciliation and voter mobilisation rather than merely popularity.

Dr. Stephen Lafenwa of the Political Science Department, University of Ibadan, also believes the present political climate reflects growing tension and heightened competitiveness.

“With the declaration of Governor Seyi Makinde’s interest to contest under the coalition between APM and PDP, internal party crisis in APC arising from emergence of different strong aspirants , and many political defections to minor parties such as Accord and SDP, the political climate is tense and highly competitive,” he said.

According to him, voters themselves are becoming confused by the complex political manoeuvrings, zoning calculations and coalition arrangements unfolding across parties.

Indeed, zoning has quietly emerged as another sensitive issue shaping the succession debate.

Ibadan politicians continue to rely on the city’s voting strength and demographic advantage, while other zones insist power rotation and political inclusiveness should shape the 2027 contest.

The silent succession war within the ruling camp has also become more pronounced.

Though Governor Makinde has not publicly endorsed any successor, political actors believed to enjoy his confidence have become visible across strategic political engagements.

Among such figures is former Commissioner for Finance, Hon. Bimbo Adekanmbi, whose growing consultations and public appearances have intensified speculations about his governorship ambition.

Adekanmbi has repeatedly pledged to sustain the sectoral legacies of the Makinde administration, especially in infrastructure, workers’ welfare, education and economic expansion.

His recent meetings with influential stakeholders, including media entrepreneur Yinka Ayefele, were widely interpreted as part of broader consultations ahead of 2027.

Yet, not everyone within the Makinde-led PDP fold appears comfortable with the succession calculations.

Some loyalists believe the process is gradually narrowing political space within the party, while others fear that unresolved ambitions may trigger defections before the election.

Political analysts warn that mishandling candidate selection may create deep divisions capable of weakening even dominant parties.

Farounbi specifically warned that the APC could face internal implosion if its selection  arrangements are poorly managed.

“APC claimed to have a consensus candidate even before nomination started. Thereafter, several persons collected nomination forms. In a top-driven party like APC, disqualification can be used to arrive at their candidate. There may be implosion arising from failure of the party to reach consensus through negotiated agreement among all aspirants. This may lead to rebellion by unhappy aspirants,” he said.

Aside from elite politics, there are growing concerns over possible tensions and violence as political activities intensify.

The Inter Party Advisory Council (IPAC) has reportedly raised concerns about the possibility of political violence if parties fail to properly manage their supporters and internal disputes.

Dr. Lafenwa stressed the need for security agencies to remain proactive before, during and after the elections.

“It is imperative for security agencies to maintain law and order before, during and after the 2027 general elections,” he said.

The unfolding scenario also reflects broader national political uncertainties.

The weakening ideological boundaries between parties, increasing coalition politics and widespread defections have made party identity less rigid than before.

For many politicians, survival, structure and access to influence now appear more important than ideological loyalty.

In Oyo, this reality is very visible as alliances cut across party lines and former rivals quietly negotiate political understandings ahead of the elections.

Analysts say the eventual outcome may depend largely on three major factors: the strength of Makinde’s political influence after leaving office, the ability of opposition parties to manage internal disagreements, and the capacity of emerging parties to convert growing popularity into electoral structures.

Another factor likely to shape the contest is voter sentiment regarding governance performance.

While Governor Makinde continues to enjoy considerable support in several parts of the state due to infrastructure development and workers’ welfare policies, economic hardship and national political realities may also influence voter behaviour by 2027.

The APC, despite its internal challenges, still retains considerable grassroots presence and federal influence, while smaller parties hope to capitalise on public frustration with mainstream political actors.

What remains clear, however, is that Oyo’s 2027 governorship race is already evolving into far more than a routine succession contest.

It is becoming a battle over political dominance, coalition survival, regional balancing, elite negotiations and the future direction of power in one of the South-West’s most politically strategic states.

For now, the horse-trading continues quietly behind the scenes.

Meetings are being held in private residences. Loyalists are mobilising discreetly. Aspirants are strengthening alliances. Political camps are testing their structures. Smaller parties are gaining unusual visibility.

And beneath the surface of public declarations and political consultations lies a silent succession war that may finally  determine not only who governs Oyo in 2027, but also which political coalition emerges dominant in the post-Makinde era.